February 2025 | Released March 12, 2025


Consumer Price Index


From January 2025 to February 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.22 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.16 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was 0.20 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.23 percent.

From February 2024 to February 2025:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.82 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.61 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -0.17 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 3.12 percent.

Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index

Feb 2025 Jan 2025 M/M difference Feb 2024 Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.22% 0.47% -0.25pp 0.40% -0.18pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.23% 0.45% -0.22pp 0.37% -0.14pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.16% 0.36% -0.20pp 0.07% 0.09pp
Energy Consumer Price Index 0.20% 1.08% -0.88pp 1.34% -1.14pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.82% 3.00% -0.18pp 3.15% -0.33pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.12% 3.26% -0.14pp 3.75% -0.63pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.61% 2.50% 0.11pp 2.23% 0.38pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -0.17% 0.97% -1.14pp -1.90% 1.73pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.23% 0.22% 0.01pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.27% 0.23% 0.04pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.83% 2.82% 0.00pp
Core Consumer Price Index 3.16% 3.12% 0.05pp


Real earnings


From January 2025 to February 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

Feb 2025 Jan 2025 M/M difference Feb 2024 Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.09% 0.00% 0.09pp -0.18% 0.27pp
Year-over-year 1.17% 0.90% 0.27pp 1.00% 0.17pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.06% -0.34% 0.40pp 0.10% -0.04pp
Year-over-year 0.59% 0.63% -0.04pp 0.67% -0.08pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month 0.10% -0.10% 0.20pp -0.31% 0.41pp
Year-over-year 1.44% 1.03% 0.41pp 1.14% 0.30pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month 0.12% -0.39% 0.51pp 0.34% -0.22pp
Year-over-year 1.09% 1.31% -0.22pp 0.30% 0.79pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Mar 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, February 2025 U.S. Treasury
Mar 17 10:00 AM State Employment Update, January 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 27 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2024 Third Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 28 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, February 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 28 10:00 AM State Employment Update, February 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 04 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, March 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, April 2025 U.S. Treasury
Apr 10 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, March 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 11 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2025 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.